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Table 3
Summary of predictive studies.
Study | Sample | Predicted variable | Procedures | Main results |
---|---|---|---|---|
Adams, Morgans, Sacramento, Morgan, & Williams (2013) | 10 369 individual match observations in the English Premier League for the 2011–2012 season | ● Individual performance: Membership to team of different strengths | Collected by Opta Sportsdata | ● For defenders, frequency of successful short passes followed by unsuccessful passes in opposition half were the best predictors ● For midfielders, frequency of successful passes in opposition half were the best predictors |
Barron, Ball, Robins, & Sunderland (2020) | 966 players in the English Championship for the 2008–2009 and 2009–2010 seasons | ● Individual performance: Membership to team of different strengths | Collected by STATS | ● Match actions associated with passing, shooting and regaining possession were significant factors in predicting the level of competition an individual would compete at in the following season |
Brito Souza, López-Del Campo, Blanco-Pita, Resta, & Del Coso (2019) | 3040 matches played in the Spanish La Liga for the 2010–2011 to 2017–2018 seasons | ● Team performance: Points earned in season | Collected by Media Coach | ● Greater frequencies of shots, corners, recoveries and better ratio of shots conceded to goals conceded were positively associated with points earned ● Match actions of shot accuracy and preventing shots conceded were positively associated with points earned |
Elyakim et al. (2020) | 1240 matches played in the Italian Serie A and Isareli Premier League | ● Team performance: Match outcome | Collected by InStat | ● Match actions associated with possession (passes, time in possession), key actions (shots, key passes, actions up the pitch) and performance quality (shot accuracy percentage, pass accuracy percentage) positively influenced match outcome |
Harrop & Nevill (2014) | 46 matches in the English League One for the 2012–2013 season | ● Team performance: Match outcome | Collected by Prozone | ● Successful passes and shots were predictive of successful match outcomes ● Total passes and dribbles were predictive of negative match outcomes |
Lago-Peñas & Dellal (2010) | 380 matches played in the Spanish La Liga for the 2008–2009 season | ● Team performance: Match outcome | Collected by Gecasport | ● Greater frequency of shots (total, on target, to goal ratio), assists, offsides and crosses conceded were associated with winning the match ● Greater frequency of crosses, offsides received, and red cards were associated with losing the match |
Lepschy, Wäsche, & Woll (2020) | 918 matches played in the Bundesliga for the 2014–2015 to 2016–2017 seasons | ● Team performance: Match outcome | Collected by Opta Sportsdata | ● Defensive errors, shots to goal ratio, shots (counter attack, on target, total) greatest positive influence on match outcome ● Crossing frequency negatively influenced match outcome ● Certain match actions influenced by contextual variables of opponent strength and home advantage |
Liu, Gómez, Lago-Peñas, & Sampaio (2015) | 48 matches in FIFA World Cup 2014 group stage | ● Team performance: Match outcome | Collected by Opta Sportsdata | ● Shots (total, on target, counter attack, inside area), possession, short pass, average pass streak, aerial advantage and tackles had clear positive effects on the team’s probability of winning ● Shots blocked, crosses, dribbles and red cards had clear negative effects on winning |
Liu, Hopkins, & Gómez (2016) | 320 matches in Spanish La Liga for the 2012–2013 season | ● Team performance: Match outcome | Collected by Opta Sportsdata | ● Shots on target, total shots and possession had a positive effect on likelihood of winning |
Mao, Peng, Liu, & Gómez (2016) | 480 matches played in the Chinese Super League for the 2014 and 2015 season | ● Team performance: Match outcome | Collected by Opta Sportsdata | ● Match outcome was positively influenced by shots on target, shot accuracy, cross accuracy, tackles and yellow cards received |
Moura, Martins, & Cunha (2014) | 96 match observations in the FIFA World Cup 2006 group stage | ● Team performance: Match outcome | Collected by FIFA | ● Shots (total, on target) and fouls (conceded, committed) were significant match actions that discriminated between winning, drawing and losing teams |
Pappalardo & Cintia (2017) | 6396 matches in Premier League, Serie A, La Liga, Bundesliga, Eredivisie, and Ligue 1 | ● Team performance: Match outcome | Collected by Wyscout | ● Possession and shots were positively associated with match outcome Goalkeeper interventions, fouls conceded and clearances were negatively associated with match outcome Relative performance of match actions better descriptor than absolute performance |
Pappalardo et al. (2019) | 21 361 players in 19 619 matches across 18 professional domestic and international competitions | ● Individual performance: Player ranking ● Team performance: Match outcome |
Collected by Wyscout | ● Different variations of match actions creating assists (simple pass, cross, head) and shots or free kicks on target were significant predictors in match outcome ● Predictors across competitions were small, with the exception of international tournaments such as the European Championships and FIFA World Cup |
Sgrò, Barresi, & Lipoma (2015) | 24 matches in the European Championships 2012 | ● Team performance: Match outcome | Hand notation by researchers | ● Offensive actions related to goal scoring– total goals, total shots, shot efficiency and assists were best predictors of match outcome |
Waldron & Worsfold (2010) | 53 sub-elite and 18 elite English youth football players | ● Individual performance: Membership to team of different strengths | Hand notation by researchers | ● Significantly higher frequencies of 9 match actions in domains of successful shooting, passing, dribbling by elite players compared to sub-elite ones |
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